If you’re getting a sense of déjà vu, fear not because I have an explanation: In 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order that sought to phase out the sales of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035. But until now, that has only been a goal. On Thursday, the California Air Resources Board will vote on the ban.
As reported by the New York Times, if passed, the impact will be huge. CARB will require that by 2035, 100 percent of all new cars sold in California have to be emissions free. Currently, 16 percent of California’s vehicles are not powered by internal combustion engines. In the meantime, between now and 2035, CARB is setting goals for phasing out sales of new ICE-powered cars. In 2026, the number is expected to rise to 35 percent. And in 2030, 68 percent of California’s new car sales are expected to be emissions-free.
In case you were wondering about exactly what kinds of vehicles will no longer be sold new with an internal combustion engine, I was able to find the proposed legislation. It covers passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks, or more specifically, vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating of no more than 8,500 pounds. It also covers small-volume manufacturers, so even one-offs will have to be zero-emissions vehicles. Additionally, Governor Newson seeks to ban the sales of new ICE-powered medium and heavy duty vehicles. But that is still just targeted for 2045.
Of course, the ban only covers the sales of new vehicles. Residents of the state will still be able to purchase and drive used gasoline and diesel-powered cars and trucks.
This development comes on the heels of President Biden’s signing of the Inflation Reduction Act last week. The Act authorizes $369 billion in spending on fighting climate change. It also seeks to create manufacturing jobs, lower living costs, reduce the deficit, and changes to corporate taxes. The Inflation Reduction Act also makes a bunch of changes to the tax credits available to hybrid and electric cars.
It also comes after California signed a law banning the sale of new small off-road engines starting in 2024, with portable generators following in 2028. California is being hailed as the first government in the world to mandate zero-emissions vehicles. But the state isn’t exactly alone. The European Union recently voted to ban the sales of ICE-powered cars by 2035. But what the EU’s regulations will look like are not completely clear just yet. Of course, auto manufacturers also have their own targets for going emissions-free.
Currently, 13 states and Washington D.C. follow California’s lead on vehicle emission standards. That number used to be 12 states, but Colorado most recently joined in 2018 with standards going into effect in the 2022 model year. As the New York Times points out, there are an additional five states that follow California’s broader emissions strategy as well.
The states following California’s lead could introduce their own bans on sales of new internal combustion vehicles. And if those states and Washington D.C. introduce similar measures, it’ll mean that more than a third of America’s car market (by state) will not allow the sales of ICE-powered vehicles in the near future.
(Top image credit: CalTrans)
This assumes that drought hasn’t killed everyone off by then. Or fires haven’t burned them out. Or monkeypox doesn’t accelerate into pandemic proportions. Or that the whole population of Texas doesn’t get fed up with increasingly unliveable regulations, and move to Texas en masse.
Group 1 will just pay to have lightly used luxury cars shipped in (expect a hot nationwide market for 7500 mile S-classes), the CA government will declare a humanitarian crises and supply group 2 with gas vouchers, which are paid for by increasing taxes on group 3 who are forced to buy these new $60000 cars and pay 25% increased rent to install chargers in every apartment parking space. There will be a subsequent increase in theft of these cars, whole or whatever battery components can be stripped from underneath, while protesters heavily vandalize remaining ICE vehicles which are not garage parked at night, neither of which will be prosecuted because it’s not their fault and they total just steal this stuff to feed their kids.
Yes, I spent some time in SoCal.
It’s all well and good to force people to buy insanely expensive car-shaped iPhones, but let’s be real. We all know that governments are regulating what us little people can buy because they will never be allowed to change manufacturing, power generation, and overseas shipping. Those industries control our government. Meanwhile we have no say, so here we are. Being forced to buy $50,000 electronic devices that will wear out in a couple years thanks to the entire power source being one giant consumable.
So, are cars and trucks the only problem? No, but they’re a big part of the problem. And they’re something we are able to do something about in the relatively short term. And it’s not like they aren’t also working to curb emissions in these other sectors as well.
27% of greenhouse gases comes from transportation. However, you are falsely equating ‘transportation’ with ‘passenger vehicles.’ That 27% figure includes OTR trucks, ships, trains, and airplanes. What percentage of that 27% is just road cars? The EPA doesn’t specify here.
Additionally, industry, power generation, and commercial and home energy use make up a whopping 62% of emissions! But sure, we have to address the passenger car problem, definitely not majority of the pie.
We definitely should do many somethings to fix our dependency on dirty energy. I believe that outlawing gas-only cars is the wrong approach because there are much bigger systemic sources of pollution that could also be addressed by enacting regulations.
Personally, I’ve seen very little about concerted efforts to effect widespread changes to electricity production, with nuclear being basically a non-starter. I’ve seen even less about clean manufacturing, and I understand for a lot of sectors that’s basically impossible. Alternative fuels for ships and planes are a pipe dream at this point, but at least there’s active research into that.
I have an honest question because I genuinely don’t know. Does this CA proposal come with plans for shoring up the power grid to handle all the extra draw? And is that plan just -build more coal plants-? If so, isn’t that kind of one step forward, two steps back?
Honestly, what will I do with myself when all cars are electric self-driving blob things someday?
The population boom over the past 100 years is whats really destroying our planet, not your 2015 Corolla or F150 that everybody in Cali drives. This ban of ICE wont stick unless the tech behind EVs radically changes in the next 5 years and costs come down significantly. Right now they are just a novelty for rich people.
Other site headline: “It’s about time! California passes bill to ban all ICE by 2035. Environment saved for at California!”
I’ve read about California’s ICE ban in a few places, but I have yet to see any information about how the state plans to improve charging infrastructure.
we have to think about this when Newsom tries for the presidency now that Biden VP is a lame duck.
The drought may reduce or even eliminate the Hydro percent. The question we should ask is by 2035 can California survive if the Coal and Natural gas plants are removed? Otherwise this is just moving the emissions needle. Honestly that whole state needs to try to live off nothing related to those two things. See how that works out for them.
And all those very heavy pickups are excempt? Oh boy.
The Ferengi would be proud.
“Sec. 415. (1) A target is established for the state that all publicly owned and privately owned passenger and light duty vehicles of model year 2030 or later that are sold, purchased, or registered in Washington state be electric vehicles.
(2) On or before December 31, 2023, the interagency electric vehicle coordinating council created in section 428 of this act shall complete a scoping plan for achieving the 2030 target.”
https://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2021-22/Pdf/Bills/Senate%20Passed%20Legislature/5974-S.PL.pdf?q=20220825064704
Or in other words, the state wants you to be in an EV by 2030, but ICE sales can continue. Apparently, some reporting on Washington’s law has called it a ban, which has generated this response from officials:
“Washington Senate Transportation Committee Chair Marko Liias (D-Mukilteo) said he does not foresee changing the goal to a requirement. In recent weeks, it has been routinely misconstrued in automotive journals and online story posts as a forthcoming ban on gasoline-powered cars.”
https://www.knkx.org/transportation/2022-04-11/washington-wants-drivers-to-plug-into-clean-cars-by-2030-before-other-west-coast-states
New York’s plan is similarly just a goal. Massachusetts just passed its ban on new ICE sales in 2035, beating California by 2 weeks. But the MA law is actually a trigger law that requires California to pass its own law before the MA one becomes applicable.
“SECTION 46. Subsection (d) of section 4 of chapter 93B of the General Laws, as appearing in the 2020 Official Edition, is hereby amended by adding the following paragraph:-
(4) to sell in-state any new vehicle that is not a zero-emission vehicle. For the purposes of this paragraph, “vehicle” shall mean a passenger car or light duty truck and “zero-emission vehicle” shall have the same meaning as defined in section 16 of chapter 25A.
SECTION 96. Section 46 shall take effect upon the secretary of energy and environmental affairs’ certification in writing to the state secretary that a similar requirement regarding the sale of zero-emission vehicles has taken effect in the state of California; provided, however, that said section 46 shall not take effect prior to January 1, 2035 unless otherwise authorized by section 142k of chapter 111 of the General Laws.”
Section 46 adds to an existing law that lays out what is illegal for car dealers to do. Upon the passage of an ICE sales ban in California, the Massachusetts law makes it illegal to sell ICE-powered vehicles sometime in 2035. The exact date would be set by a council, but it would be by December 31, 2035.
https://malegislature.gov/Laws/SessionLaws/Acts/2022/Chapter179 https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXV/Chapter93B/Section4
So California is technically first since it’s an actual ban and not a goal, and since the MA law doesn’t ban the sale of ICE cars unless California does it first.
Amazing, since just a few days ago I was assured in the comments section of this very site that I had nothing to fear and that ICEs weren’t going to be banned.
This is perhaps the most shortsighted and idiotic policy idea ever in a country that’s swimming in them. Let’s take a state already prone to brownouts and add a bunch more of an unproven and unfinished technology to that grid! Let’s ensure a reduction in living standards for our citizens while China builds more coal plants and laughs at our self-inflicted wounds.
Every time the deadline is a few years away they will just extend it a little more until it’s 2050. At which point they will realize we should try going HEV and reinvest in nuclear.
If everyone has to drive an EV an HEV makes more sense. It’s just an issue of being more difficult because of the fueling infrastructure.
But what’s gets me the most is they are obsessed with carbon zero with no room for compromise but are unwilling to reevaluate nuclear power when that’s the only realistic way.
The best time to do this was 20 years ago, the next best time is now.
Nuclear is easily scaled, highly compatible with existing transmission and infrastructure, and has a much longer lifespan then solar. Not to mention you don’t need energy storage solutions since it can run at 100% capacity day or night, rain or shine, in any location.
I’m with you on nuclear but that industry has a Hell of a PR battle to win first. The physics are solid, the politics and crisis management not so much.
